Will Scotland at last end the All Blacks hoodoo?

Match action
The All Blacks implemented several adjustments to the side that defeated the Irish team

Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand

Where: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh Date: this weekend Time: 3:10 PM GMT

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Match moment
Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the 31-23 defeat to New Zealand in 2022

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.

Pamela Aguilar
Pamela Aguilar

Tech enthusiast and software developer with a passion for sharing knowledge on emerging technologies and coding best practices.